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賽局理論在1928年就被提出,是經濟學的一部份,但也經常運用於生活之中, 可以拿來預測他人的行為或協助自己決定策略。
有趣的是真正將它發揚光大的是約翰‧納許, 而不是當時提出的弗勒德和德雷希爾。
Game Theory is part of Economy, people use this theory often, it can help us to predict the behavior of others or decide strategy. Game theory was proposed in 1928, but the person who enhanced and glorify was John Nash.

-什麼是賽局理論?
What Is Game Theory?
賽局理論是具有競爭和對抗性質的遊戲,由兩個人以上構成。雙方有各自的利益和目標,需要透過各方面的思考以及考慮對手的各種可能,並爭取對自己最有利的方案。
game theory is the study of how people, companies or nations (referred to as agents or players) determine strategies in different situations in the face of competing strategies acted out by other agents or players.

-相關的概念有什麼?
What kind of concept is related to Game theory?


1.納什均衡 
是指在這一個均衡中,每個博弈參與人都確信,在給定其他參與人戰略決定的情況下,他選擇了最優戰略以回應對手的戰略
Nash equilibrium
Is a concept within game theory where the optimal outcome of a game is where there is no incentive to deviate from their initial strategy.

2.囚徒困境 
是指在這個困境中,囚犯們彼此合作,都拒絕說出實話,並未團隊帶來最大的利益。但因為無法溝通,也可以透過背叛增加自己的利益,縮短刑期。
Prisoner's Dilemma
Is a paradox in decision analysis in which two individuals acting in their own self-interests do not produce the optimal outcome. The typical prisoner's dilemma is set up in such a way that both parties choose to protect themselves at the expense of the other participant

3.零和博弈和非零和博弈
零和博弈是指一方的得益必然會造成另一方的損失,因而雙方對峙結果的總和永遠等如零。
相反,非零和博弈是透過合作 ( 或說互惠 ), 雙方都有所得
Zero-sum / non-zero-sum

In which choices by players can neither increase nor decrease the available resources. In zero-sum games, the total benefit to all players in the game, for every combination of strategies, always adds to zero.

 

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囚徒困境小例子 Example of Prisoner's Dilemma

嫌犯A和嫌犯B都可以選擇認罪或說謊,總共會出現4種組合。
Person A and B can both choose to admit or lie, there will be four different combination
(A,B)=(認罪,認罪)(認罪,招供)(招供,認罪)(招供,招供)
(A,B)=(Admit,Admit)(Admit,Betray)(Betray,Admit)(Betray,Betray)

上方圖片的數字為雙方需要服的刑期。
The image on the top is the serving time of person A and B in different situations

-第一種狀況,當A和B都選擇認罪,彼此都需要服8年的刑
The first situation is person A cooperates with B and both tell the truth, then serve eight years sentence

-第二種狀況,當A認罪B選擇招供,A服20年的刑B則脫罪
The second situation is person B betrays A, then B can be free, A serves 20 years sentence

-第三種狀況,當A招供B選擇認罪,A則脫罪B服20年的刑
The third situation is person A betrays B, then A can be free, B serves 20 years sentence


-第四種狀況,當A和B都選擇招供,彼此都需要服半年的刑
The fourth situation is person A cooperates with B and both lie, then serve half year sentence


對於A與B來說,相較於兩個人都選「背叛」、被關20年,明明兩個人都選擇「否認」絕對是更明智的選擇。然而在彼此無法溝通的情況下,人往往都會由於資訊的不足而產生恐懼,並且採取「自利」式的思考,也導致了兩人各自選了不是最有利的選擇。
Honestly, person A and B both lie will be the better choice for them cuz they can spend short times in prison then they can be free. But, people will be afraid when they don't have enough information, that causes people choose the choice is not most advantageous.
 
 

資訊來源Resources

知識圖片素材 image materials
zh.wikipedia.org/zh-tw/博弈论
nicecasio.pixnet.net/blog/post/445409720
囚徒困境(The Prisoner's Dilemma)_杂家杂谭
youtube.com/watch?v=svoKR8mfNfU
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